Horse Racing - Apprentice Jockeys | Forum

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aaliyahdaniel Dec 7 '17

But there is another The Profit Kings deduction you have to make as well. It is difficult to put an actual figure on it, but I think 20% is a safe amount in most cases. I base this amount on the old 80-20 rule, in other words, 80% of the races have logical results while 20% are illogical. What do I mean by illogical? When you are handicapping a horse race you usually have an idea of each horse's chances of winning, call it a probability.After the race, even if the horse that you bet on didn't win, you can look at the race and see that the horse that beat yours did have a legitimate chance of winning based on its recent form. However, about one out of five races will mystify most handicappers. A horse who seemingly had no chance of winning will win, usually as a long shot.

While you and the rest of the public may not know how the horse won, there usually is a good answer, it is just something that isn't in the past performances. It may be that the horse had been ill and is now feeling better, It may be that the trainer tried a new method of shoeing or any other thing that isn't listed in the racing form.